Leaderboard
Who's the best at predicting AI's future? Rankings based on resolved predictions. Minimum 5 predictions required.
Scoring Methodology
- Accuracy: Weighted by confidence. High-confidence failures hurt more.
- Calibration: Do your confidence levels match reality?
- Brier Score: The gold standard for probabilistic predictions. Lower is better.
Why Minimum 5 Predictions?
Small sample sizes are noisy. Someone with 1 correct prediction at 100% confidence would dominate the leaderboard unfairly. We require 5+ resolved predictions to ensure meaningful comparisons.