Groundhog AI Day

Inspired by the tradition of Groundhog Day, we check if AI sees its shadow through verifiable predictions. Will we have six more weeks of AI winter, or is spring finally here?

The Concept

Just as Punxsutawney Phil emerges to predict the weather, our platform emerges annually to assess whether AI's promises have cast shadows of doubt or brought genuine breakthroughs. Every prediction made is tracked, verified, and contributes to our collective understanding of AI's trajectory.

How It Works

1.Make falsifiable predictions about AI developments with clear resolution dates
2.Track your predictions and resolve them when the time comes
3.Build your accuracy score through honest resolution of predictions
4.Report "sensing gaps" when AI causes unexpected incidents
5.Receive your annual accountability report on Groundhog Day (February 2nd)

Our Mission

We believe in bringing the same accountability to AI predictions that exists in other professional fields. No more "AI will revolutionize X in 2 years" without follow-up. No more moving goalposts. Just clear predictions, honest resolutions, and transparent track records.

By gamifying prediction accountability, we aim to improve the quality of AI discourse, reward accurate forecasters, and build a historical record of what was promised versus what was delivered.

Velociraptor Testing

Our unique "Velociraptor Test" asks a simple question: If velociraptors were still around, would this AI system notice and alert us? It's our way of checking whether AI systems are truly aware of their environment or just pattern-matching within expected parameters.

Annual Shadow Report

Every February 1st, we compile the comprehensive Shadow Report analyzing:

Domain-specific progress across healthcare, autonomous systems, AGI, and more
Accuracy rates of community predictions
Major sensing gap incidents
Hype vs. reality comparisons
Expert panel assessments

On February 2nd, all users receive their personal accountability snapshots, showing their prediction accuracy, earned badges, and year-over-year progress.

Recognition & Badges

We celebrate various achievements in prediction accountability:

Oracle: Exceptional prediction accuracy
Calibrated: Confidence levels match outcomes
Contrarian: Successful predictions against consensus
Domain Expert: High accuracy in specific AI domains
Malpractice Insured: Professional predictors with coverage
Shadow Spotter: Correctly predicted "AI winter" periods

Ready to make your mark on AI accountability?

Join our community of thoughtful predictors working to separate AI hype from reality.