Will AI See Its Shadow?
Track predictions. Measure accuracy. Hold the industry accountable."AI doesn't have malpractice insurance. Your predictions shouldn't either."
The Shadow Index™
Every February 2nd, we assess the state of AI. Did the groundhog see its shadow?
Deep Shadow
Major setbacks, safety incidents, hype collapse. Six more weeks of AI winter ahead.
Partial Shadow
Mixed progress. Some breakthroughs, significant caveats. Cloudy with a chance of progress.
No Shadow
Genuine breakthroughs validated. Safety improvements documented. AI spring has arrived.
How It Works
Accountability requires transparency. Every prediction stays attached to your name.
Make a Prediction
State your claim with a confidence level (0-100%) and timeframe.
Track Progress
Watch predictions mature. See what's coming due for resolution.
Resolve Honestly
When time's up, mark it correct, incorrect, or partially correct.
Face Your Record
Every February 2nd, your prediction history is surfaced.
Proper Scoring Rules
You can't game our scoring system by hedging everything at 50%. The Brier score—the gold standard for probabilistic predictions—rewards calibrated confidence.
Accuracy Score
Weighted by confidence. High-confidence failures hurt more.
Calibration Score
Do your confidence levels match reality? Say 90% ten times, be right nine times.
Brier Score
The proper scoring rule. Lower is better. Can't be gamed.
Sample Accountability Report
Earn Your Reputation
Badges reflect your prediction behavior over time. Some you want. Others... not so much.
Ready to Put Your Predictions on Record?
Join the community holding AI accountable. No quiet forgetting. No "I never said that." Your prediction stays attached to your name.
Make Your First Prediction